Beginner's luck: Rookie NFL QBs who led their teams to the postseason

Discussions about a three-team trade atop the 2023 draft would have featured Houston climbing from No. 2 to No. 1. Bryce Young was the rumored target. Fortunately for the Texans, the Panthers dealt directly with the Bears and grabbed Young. The consolation prize, Stroud soared to Offensive Rookie of the Year acclaim and revived a Texans team that had trudged through two years of nothingness. Finding their post-Deshaun Watson answer, the Texans saw Stroud dazzle despite minimal rushing aid and not much help around Nico Collins. The Texans walloped the Browns, a road favorite, in the wild-card round before falling to the No. 1-seeded Ravens. 

Already one of the all-time draft steals, Purdy needed to scrap to make the 49ers’ 53-man roster. He soon became Jimmy Garoppolo’s backup, thanks to Trey Lance’s Week 2 ankle fracture. Following the injury-prone Garoppolo’s foot fracture in Week 13, Kyle Shanahan’s offense did not lose much steam. That year’s Mr. Irrelevant stepped in and guided San Francisco to seven straight wins, the final two coming in playoff wins over the Seahawks and Cowboys. Purdy established himself as the 49ers’ starter in 2023, as Tom Brady turned his hometown team down, and effectively bailed them out after the historic Lance misfire. 

Josh McDaniels has faceplanted twice as a head coach while both elevating Tom Brady into an all-time great and coaxing a second-place Offensive Rookie of the Year finish from Jones. The latter accomplishment has aged well, as Jones has fallen hard after his rookie-year success. Only Ja’Marr Chase beat out Jones in 2021, with the Patriots going 10-7 to bounce back after their Cam Newton stopgap year. The fifth QB taken in what became an overhyped 2021 class, Jones outperformed the four players chosen above him as a rookie. The pocket passer believed to have been Kyle Shanahan’s target threw 22 TD passes and ranked 16th in QBR, though the downfall began with a Bills dismantling in Round 1.

Like Jones, Jackson was the fifth quarterback chosen in his class. Unlike Jones, the Louisville alum was deemed too raw to start in Week 1. The Ravens parked Jackson behind 11th-year starter Joe Flacco; a Flacco hip injury signaled the change in Baltimore. Jackson was indeed an unpolished passer as a rookie, and the Ravens retooled their offense around the dynamic performer’s then-limited skillset. Jackson amassed 695 rushing yards despite starting just seven games, beginning a march toward becoming the greatest rushing QB ever. The Chargers humbled the future Hall of Famer in a one-sided wild-card loss, however. 

Before becoming a lightning rod, Prescott was a Mississippi State prospect whose college success did not translate to draft hype. The seventh QB chosen in 2016 — behind the likes of Christian Hackenberg and Connor Cook — Prescott replaced Tony Romo when the longtime starter suffered a back injury during the preseason. Romo’s return to health did not lead to Prescott taking a seat, as the then-dual threat took the Cowboys to 13-3. Playing with the 2016 rushing champion (Ezekiel Elliott) and three O-line All-Pros, Prescott zoomed to Offensive Rookie of the Year status. He held his own in a divisional-round duel with Aaron Rodgers, though the Packers ousted the top-seeded Cowboys.

The 2012 rookie QB class lost steam, with Griffin at the forefront of the gradual downgrade. But the Baylor superstar earned his Offensive Rookie of the Year win. Playing for both Shanahans, Sean McVay and Mike McDaniel, RG3 shined in a rejiggered offense geared around his unique skills. A Washington fanbase starved for a QB answer believed it landed one, as Griffin powered the 2012 squad to a division title and a No. 4 seed. Griffin, however, suffered an ACL tear during a wild-card loss to the Seahawks. Defenses soon zeroed in on the inconsistent passer, leading to 2012 fourth-rounder Kirk Cousins usurping the player for whom Washington traded three first-round picks.

Picking perfect seasons to crater, the Colts finished 2-14 14 years after their miserable 1997 produced Peyton Manning. The prize of the 2012 class, Luck being available prompted Indianapolis to cut Manning. After the legendary presence took a free-agent tour, Luck had the Colts ready to compete again. Luck earned Pro Bowl recognition, leading seven game-winning drives to help the Colts book a 10th playoff berth in 11 seasons. Luck had many of Manning’s troops in relevant roles after the 2011 faceplant, with the Colts going 11-5 after a 3-3 start. En route to a Super Bowl title, the Ravens dispatched the Colts in the wild-card round.

Griffin was a backup by 2014, and Luck shockingly retired due to injuries in 2019. Wilson became the 2012 class’ saving grace, doing so despite being a third-round pick. Once displaced by Mike Glennon in college, Wilson beat out Matt Flynn as a rookie and opened the Seahawks’ Super Bowl window by thriving on a Day 2 rookie deal. Wilson offered tremendous poise as a rookie, even if his aerial game was years away from its peak. Teaming with a No. 1-ranked defense, Wilson formed a lethal inside-outside punch with Marshawn Lynch. The 11-5 Seahawks downed Washington in the wild-card round before nearly upending the No. 1-seeded Falcons the next week. 

The Bengals drafted Dalton in the second round, doing so as Carson Palmer staged a quasi-retirement. Expressing disagreements with the organization (largely due to its frugal spending habits), Palmer stayed away from the team until the Bengals traded him to the Raiders at the deadline . This came as Dalton became a quick study. Maligned for midlevel play down the line, Dalton quarterbacked the Bengals to the first of five straight playoff berths. He teamed with first-rounder A.J. Green to form a top-flight combo during a 9-7 season, but a Texans team missing starter Matt Schaub ousted the Bengals in the opening round.

A footnote as a quarterback, Yates replaced Schaub in Week 12 and started the next seven games for a playoff-bound team. The Texans chose Yates in the fifth round out of North Carolina, installing the future assistant coach as the third-stringer. Schaub suffered a season-ending Lisfranc injury, and backup Matt Leinart went down with a broken foot. This spree of foot trouble left the Texans with Yates, who did not prove inept. A lower-wattage attack post-Schaub, the Texans still went 3-3 with Yates at the helm. This included a one-sided wild-card win over the Bengals. Yates threw three INTs in a second-round loss in Baltimore, only starting games due to injuries during the rest of his career.

Unable to trade Brett Favre to the Vikings due to a poison-pill contract that effectively prohibited it, the Jets were reeling when their 2008 starter “retired.” After relinquishing Favre’s rights, the Jets crafted a blockbuster trade-up to nab Sanchez at No. 5. The Jets did not need to trade a future first-rounder to jump from 17 to 5, and they installed the USC alum from the start. The Jets did not give Sanchez gunslinging responsibilities, preferring he keep the car on the road while a dominant defense led the way. This formula produced a 9-7 season and upset wins over the Bengals and Chargers in the playoffs. Sanchez only totaled 2,444 passing yards as a rookie but threw two TD passes in an AFC title game loss to the Colts. 

Steve McNair offered a high-end stopgap option in 2006, guiding the Ravens to a 13-3 record, but the injury-prone passer missed time to help lead Brian Billick out of town a year later. This led to Flacco and John Harbaugh teaming up in 2008. The Ravens added Flacco 15 picks after the Falcons chose Matt Ryan. Both passers piloted their teams to the playoffs, but Flacco teamed with a dominant defense to boost Baltimore to the AFC championship game. The Ravens went 11-5, and Flacco offered a workmanlike 14-12 TD-INT ratio. The team notched road playoff wins over the Dolphins and No. 1-seeded Titans before falling to the Steelers on the Super Bowl XLIII doorstep.

Turning the page after the Michael Vick dogfighting scandal defined the Falcons’ 2007, the NFC South organization parlayed the poor season — one in which Bobby Petrino did not finish, retreating to the college ranks — into Ryan, the 2008 draft’s top QB prospect. The Boston College product joined Flacco in submitting pedestrian stats, but Atlanta’s new franchise QB won Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. The Panthers prevailed in the NFC South that season, but the Falcons made the playoffs for the first time since 2004. Atlanta, which lost to Arizona 24-10 in the wild-card round, gave Ryan Tony Gonzalez to target weeks later.

Rex Grossman suffered a broken ankle in the preseason, ushering Orton to the forefront. The Bears had formed an elite defense, which led the NFL in scoring, and worked around Orton’s limitations. A fourth-rounder out of Purdue, Orton possessed lower-tier arm strength and offered next to no mobility. He threw just nine TD passes compared to 13 INTs, completing just 51.6% of his passes. The Bears also did not yet have Devin Hester to complement their defense. Nevertheless, the Brian Urlacher-led unit powered Chicago to an 11-5 record and the NFC’s No. 2 seed. A Steve Smith showcase, however, eliminated the Bears in the divisional round. Starting 15 games, Orton watched Grossman in that playoff game.

Had the Eli Manning power play not occurred, the Giants were aiming to draft Roethlisberger at No. 4. New York’s contingency plan not being necessary benefited Pittsburgh, who rolled out Big Ben for nearly 20 years. The future Hall of Famer took over for an injured Tommy Maddox in Week 3 and never gave the job back. This charmed season did not involve a regular-season loss with Roethlisberger at the helm. The No. 11 overall pick complemented a stout defense and won Offensive Rookie of the Year acclaim, targeting Hines Ward and Plaxico Burress. The Steelers held off the Jets in the divisional round but could not beat the Patriots a second time. Though, Bill Cowher exorcised Super Bowl demons the next year.

The Buccaneers gave Trent Dilfer a sixth season as a starter but lost the former top-10 pick to a broken collarbone in Week 12. The team turned to King, a second-round pick out of Tulane. Tampa Bay’s Hall of Famer-laden defense began to show its potential this season, giving King a sturdy safety net. The Bucs won four of their five regular-season games with King at the controls, edging two playoff-bound teams. King then led a 13-point comeback to vanquish Washington in the divisional round, producing a low-scoring matchup with the Rams. King and Kurt Warner combined for five INTs, and a still-disputed replay reversal nixing a Bert Emanuel catch stymied the Bucs’ final drive. 

One of the stranger QB trades commenced early during the 1986 season. Despite giving Warren Moon a then-staggering $1 million-per-year deal, the Oilers drafted Everett third overall. Leery of Moon’s presence, Everett did not sign his rookie contract and was traded to the Rams for a monster haul. This became a win-win deal, as it gave the Rams a long-sought-after QB answer and bettered Moon’s Houston roster. The Rams kept Everett benched until Week 11, using Steve Bartkowski and Steve Dils initially. The QB prospect took over and helped the team to three wins, but Washington ousted Los Angeles 19-7 in the NFC wild-card game.

Everett came to L.A. in part because the Rams lost their 1985 starter to what became a career-ending injury. Brock sustained a left knee malady in the preseason, and a back injury later kept him off the field for good. The Rams had given Brock a shot as an unusual rookie, signing him from the CFL in 1985. Brock was a 34-year-old rookie who drew criticism, but he kept the Rams’ Eric Dickerson-driven car in motion, steering the team to an 11-5 record. Brock ranked third in completion percentage and ninth in yards per attempt, and the Rams shut out the Cowboys behind Dickerson’s playoff-record 248-yard game. Brock’s run ended unceremoniously via a 21-0 Bears NFC title game coronation. 

The Browns found a more sustainable option that year, seeing a Youngstown, Ohio, native-turned-Miami Hurricanes national champion steer his way to Cleveland via the supplemental draft. The Browns traded their 1985 first-round pick, their 1986 first-rounder and other choices to the Bills for their top supplemental choice, bringing in Kosar, who became supplemental draft-eligible by graduating in the summer. The Browns did not turn to Kosar until Week 6, and he did not hit the ground running. Kosar completed just 50% of his passes, but the Browns won the AFC Central at 8-8 behind their Earnest Byner-Kevin Mack 1,000-1,000 duo. The visitors blew a 21-3 lead to the Dolphins in the divisional round.

Twenty-one years before Eli Manning’s play, Elway strongarmed his way away from Baltimore to set up Denver for nearly two decades. The super-prospect threatened to stay in the Yankees’ farm system rather than play for the Colts’ Frank Kush, but the Colts — over GM Ernie Accorsi’s objections — traded Elway to the Broncos days after drafting him. Elway struggled as a rookie, but his gifts were occasionally on display. Elway completed 47.5% of his passes and compiled a 7-14 TD-INT ratio but also showed his comeback acumen with a 19-point rally over the Colts. Elway made 10 starts, but caretaker Steve DeBerg was the better option that year. A DeBerg injury reopened the door for Elway, though the rookie did sit most of the Broncos’ 31-7 playoff loss in Seattle.

Not as celebrated as a prospect compared to the cannon-armed Elway, Marino was readier as a rookie. The Pitt product, who fell to the Dolphins thanks to a down senior season and unfounded drug rumors, is the only rookie QB in the Super Bowl era to earn All-Pro acclaim. A second-team All-Pro despite starting only nine games, Marino threw 20 TD passes and just six INTs, finishing third in MVP voting. Don Shula’s prize quarterbacked the Dolphins to a 12-4 season, showing glimpses of the dominant form to come, and the AFC’s No. 2 seed. But a five-turnover Dolphins showing enabled 9-7 Seattle — sent to Miami due to a then-rule preventing division rivals from playing until conference title games — to skate to a divisional-round upset.

The Rams traded three former or future starting QBs (Roman Gabriel, John Hadl and Ron Jaworski) from 1973-77. They had used James Harris as their post-Hadl starter, but the team went with a seventh-round rookie down the stretch in 1976. Not known for arm strength or mobility, Haden underwhelmed as a starter. But a defense-fueled Los Angeles nucleus struggled to match rivals Dallas or Minnesota under center. Haden did enjoy moments as a rookie, averaging 8.5 yards per attempt and going 5-1-1 as a starter, and won a playoff game (over the Cowboys) despite throwing three INTs. The Vikings ended Haden’s run in the NFC championship game.