Plenty of players show up at NHL training camps every year thinking this is the year.
The year they make the team or become an everyday player or make it onto a scoring line. The year they make the leap.
With the regular season right around the corner, fantasy drafts scheduled and optimism booming, who are the players best positioned to make it happen in 2024-25?
The Athletic asked its NHL staff for their predictions: one breakout candidate for each team. Here are their answers.
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Leo Carlsson, C: This feels like an easy call. In Year 1, the Ducks started out 19-year-old Carlsson with a game-management plan, and he sat out occasionally. There also were the trials of a knee sprain and a concussion that caused him to miss additional games. When he played, however, Carlsson showed the kind of skating, vision and playmaking that had Anaheim deploying him as a first-line center. He had 29 points in 55 games. Now with Cutter Gauthier beside him as a talented goal scorer and expected to play with other top Ducks offensive talent on the power play, Carlsson could easily double his production in Year 2 if he stays healthy. — Eric Stephens
Matt Poitras, C/RW: Poitras is rebooting after shoulder surgery cut short his 2023-24 — a season which he wasn’t even expected to spend with the Bruins. Now at 20, eight pounds heavier, healed from his procedure and more confident after his pro season, Poitras is ready to take the next step. He is a natural center. But the Bruins will try him at No. 2 right wing behind David Pastrnak. — Fluto Shinzawa
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Jack Quinn, RW: Quinn was fifth in the NHL in points per 60 minutes at five-on-five last season. The problem was he only played in 27 games because of two significant injuries. Now fully healthy and with a spot on the top power play, Quinn is set to take a big step forward for the Sabres. Buffalo was a different team with Quinn in the lineup last season, and his absence is a major reason the offense regressed the way it did. — Matthew Fairburn
Connor Zary, LW: Zary began last season in the AHL, but when the Flames desperately needed youth and speed in their lineup, he was given a chance and made an instant impact. He’s now the front-runner to start the season alongside Mikael Backlund and Blake Coleman, two of the Flames’ most reliable and hardworking forwards. Zary’s skill and pace could make up for the loss of Andrew Mangiapane’s work as a secondary scorer. In a year where many fans will look for young players to progress, Zary’s star has a chance at burning the brightest. — Julian McKenzie
Pyotr Kochetkov, G: The time is now for Kochetkov, who is in the second year of a four-year extension that costs the Hurricanes just $2 million against the cap. With Frederik Andersen in the final year of his deal and Kochetkov entering his prime, Carolina needs to find out if he can be at the top of its goalie tandem for the next few years. The Hurricanes — under coach Rod Brind’Amour — have a history of making goalies look good and Kochetkov should be next in line for that bump. — Cory Lavalette
Lukas Reichel, RW: Other than Connor Bedard, Reichel is the only other forward under 23 who probably sticks with the Blackhawks all season. Reichel failed to meet expectations last season. He and the Blackhawks are hopeful this season will be different. He’s probably going to get a top-six opportunity out of the gate. We’ll see what he does with it. — Scott Powers
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Justus Annunen, G: Annunen was excellent in 12 starts last season, and the 24-year-old should get an increased workload this year. Alexandar Georgiev has played 125 games over the last two seasons, second most in the NHL and only one behind the reigning Vezina winner Connor Hellebuyck. That’s too many for Georgiev, and Annunen proved last season he’s more than capable of taking more games. His .928 save percentage was second-highest in the league, albeit in a small sample, and his 13.37 goals saved above expected ranked 21st. Expect him to see more opportunities, and thrive. — Jesse Granger
The Blue Jackets’ ability to simply compete in the NHL this season likely hinges on the development of their young talent like Adam Fantilli. (Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
Adam Fantilli, C: Fantilli, the No. 3 draft pick in 2023, was just beginning to launch when he suffered a season-ending injury on Jan. 28. Fantilli’s left calf was lacerated when he kicked awkwardly in the back of the leg coming out of a check along the wall. He totaled 12-15-27 through 49 games but had started to settle in as the second-line center. Look for Fantilli to play a similar role this season, and so far early in camp, he’s played with wingers James van Riemsdyk and Yegor Chinakhov. He’s also going to eat plenty of power-play minutes. The Blue Jackets’ ability to simply compete in the NHL this season likely hinges on the development of their young talent, and Fantilli is a big part of that. — Aaron Portzline
Mavrik Bourque, C: Two years ago, it was Wyatt Johnston who burst onto the scene as a 19-year-old. Last year, it was Logan Stankoven at age 21 and Thomas Harley at 22. Now it’s Bourque’s turn. The reigning AHL scoring champ (26 goals, 51 assists) only played two games with the Stars last season — one in the regular season, the other in Game 6 of the Western Conference final — but he’ll likely find himself in the Stars’ top nine following the departures of Joe Pavelski and Ty Dellandrea. Early in camp, he’s found himself centering Jamie Benn and Stankoven, a tantalizing mix of youth, scoring and savvy. No franchise has put young players in a better position to succeed than the Stars, and Bourque will be the latest to take advantage. — Mark Lazerus
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Simon Edvinsson, D: Edvinsson came up late last season and made a positive impact for the Red Wings in a playoff chase that came up just short. Now, he’s slated for a full-time role in the top four where he should be able to use his long reach and skating to help kill plays and evade trouble on the breakout. Edvinsson may not pile up big offensive numbers right away, without a clear power-play spot, but if he can help tilt the ice more in Detroit’s favor he could be a major factor in its quest to turn the corner. — Max Bultman
Ty Emberson, D: The Oilers are a Stanley Cup-contending team filled with established stars and players who’ve reached their ceilings. Options are limited. The obvious answer is Emberson because, well, it has to be. The Oilers revamped the right side of their defense behind Evan Bouchard in the offseason, moving on from Cody Ceci, Philip Broberg and Vincent Desharnais in the process. They’re now counting on Emberson, acquired from San Jose for Ceci, to play a pivotal position next to Darnell Nurse despite having just 30 games of NHL experience. Whether Emberson’s up for the challenge is a big question, but he’s the only person who fits the bill here. — Daniel Nugent-Bowman
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Mackie Samoskevich, RW: The champs are a little short on options here, and that’s not a coincidence. We know what most of their guys can do. Samoskevich, though, is interesting. He crushed it in the AHL as a 21-year-old last season (44 points in his final 45 games), and it’s easy to imagine him adding a pop of offensive production to the vacant spot on Florida’s third line. Keep an eye on his durability, though; he’s a small player (5-foot-11, 183 pounds) who’s already dealing with an upper-body injury. — Sean Gentille
Brandt Clarke, D: Quinton Byfield’s move to center could have the 22-year-old in full flight as he drives his own line, but he did have a breakout of sorts last season. Looking at this year, the conditions are ripe for Clarke to have a breakout season. The ankle injury to Drew Doughty could have him getting more power-play time than what was initially planned. And the 21-year-old Clarke, who’s penciled in for a third-pairing role, could draw additional five-on-five minutes during Doughty’s absence. It’s fair to put Jordan Spence in here as well if he flourishes while Doughty is out. Someone else to watch for is winger Alex Laferriere, who had 12 goals as a rookie and is starting on the top line with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe. — Eric Stephens
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Marco Rossi, C: The 23-year-old finished second amongst NHL rookies last season with 21 goals, but team president and general manager Bill Guerin isn’t sold yet, and Rossi knows it. This is a big year if he wants to force the Wild to sign him long-term. Rossi was taken at No. 9 in 2020. Look at others in his draft class: Anton Lundell was taken at No. 12 and just signed a six-year, $30 million extension. Seth Jarvis was taken at No. 13 and just signed an eight-year, $63.2 million extension. Cole Perfetti’s contract was up, but the No. 10 pick just got a $3.25 million AAV on a two-year deal. Dylan Holloway was taken at No. 14 and signed a two-year offer sheet with St. Louis at more than $2.29 million. Rossi is one confident, determined player, so if he lands a top-six role this season and can get more power-play time, it’s a good bet he has a stronger season. — Michael Russo
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Juraj Slafkovský, RW: Over the first 81 games of his NHL career, Slafkovský put up eight goals and 17 assists. Over his next 40 games to close out last season, Slafkovský put up 16 goals and 19 assists. Over that 40-game span, Slafkovský’s points-per-game rate of 0.88 was equal to Jesper Bratt, Travis Konecny, Jordan Kyrou, William Karlsson and Vincent Trocheck. Just before last season ended, on March 30, he turned 20. Slafkovský begins this season with a top-line role, as a mainstay on the power play and an integral part of the Canadiens’ attack. Those second-half numbers should grow organically as Slafkovský’s game continues to improve. — Arpon Basu
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Tommy Novak, C: There isn’t a lot of room for breakout players on a team that is suddenly stocked with stars, but it looks like Novak will get every opportunity to take his game to another level — centering a line with Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault should be good for a player’s production. He must, of course, rise to the opportunity. A less-established possibility is forward Zachary L’Heureux, but he may need a bit more seasoning in Milwaukee. — Joe Rexrode
Simon Nemec’s experience playing a big role last year should help him heading into his second NHL season. (Adam Hunger / Getty Images)
Simon Nemec, D: Nemec was the No. 2 pick in 2022 and the Devils clearly believe in him, playing him in 60 games in 2023-24. Injuries forced him to play a bigger role than he was likely ready for, but that experience should help him heading into his second NHL season. The Devils also should have a stronger defensive core around him, even though Luke Hughes and possibly Brett Pesce are starting the year injured. Dougie Hamilton is back from injury and Pesce and Brenden Dillon were good adds in free agency. — Peter Baugh
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Simon Holmstrom, LW: You pretty much know what you’re getting with the bulk of this familiar roster. Holmstrom, the 23rd pick in the 2019 draft, is still scratching the surface. He scored 15 goals last season, the most he’s scored at any level — AHL, Europe — in his career. If he can win the job as the second-line left wing alongside Brock Nelson and Kyle Palmieri, Holmstrom will have a chance to play big minutes and possibly achieve even better results than thought possible during his development years. — Arthur Staple
Braden Schneider, D: As a strong defensive defenseman, Schneider might not have a huge offensive output, but his responsibility has gone up each year he’s been in the NHL. Now 23, the 2020 first-rounder has more than 200 games of NHL experience. Coach Peter Laviolette played him 17:32 per game this past postseason, up from 15:54 in the regular season. If Jacob Trouba moves down to the third pair, Schneider could get a chance in the top four this season. Even if he remains on the third pair, he likely should see an increase in both ice time and responsibility. — Peter Baugh
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Shane Pinto, C: Pinto missed the first half of last season after being suspended for violating the NHL’s gambling policy. He played every game after he was eligible to return and put up a solid 27 points in 41 games, which translated into a 0.66 points-per-game average, good for sixth on the team, just behind Vladimir Tarasenko. Tarasenko is no longer in Ottawa and Pinto is slotted into an attractive position, second-line center, probably between Drake Batherson and Josh Norris. Unlike last season, he’s signed to a contract (two years, $7.5 million) so the focus this year is just on hockey. A 60-point breakout season is well within his reach. — Eric Duhatschek
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Tyson Foerster, LW: Matvei Michkov may get the lion’s share of attention when it comes to Flyers young players, especially early, but Foerster may be better equipped to truly emerge this season. Not only was Foerster the Flyers’ leading goal scorer from Jan. 12 on, but he was trusted by Flyers coach John Tortorella to be on the ice in key situations late in games due to his proficient two-way play and ability to win board battles and willingness to go to the hard areas. Foerster will inevitably get big minutes in a top-six role from Day 1 this season. — Kevin Kurz
Cody Glass, RW: As of the second week of camp, veterans appear to have the confidence of coach Mike Sullivan more than prospects. Reasonable folks can agree to disagree on whether that is best for the Penguins, but it certainly positions Glass to get a chance at a career revitalization in Pittsburgh. Glass scored 14 of his 29 career goals two seasons ago, and management views a similar season as possible in Sullivan’s system. GM Kyle Dubas took a lottery ticket on Glass, a former No. 6 draft pick, hoping that Sullivan’s system and being in an organization where offense is prioritized could help unlock untapped potential for Glass. Glass is likely to get a look on a third line at least to start the season. The Penguins plan to have a bigger-bodied third line that includes Glass and Kevin Hayes as the wingers. Drew O’Connor emerged from a bottom-six role to become a top-line winger by late last season. That might be a stretch for Glass, but he’ll get a long look in the top nine if nothing else. — Rob Rossi
Macklin Celebrini, C: Is it right to call someone who hasn’t played an NHL regular-season game a “breakout” candidate? Sure. Is it cheating in this exercise? OK, fine. The fact is that Celebrini is in a position to have a significant impact on the Sharks in his rookie season. For starters, Logan Couture remains sidelined due to persistent inflammation in his groin and abdominal region but it’s possible Celebrini could have started out as their No. 1 center anyway. Factor in the addition of Tyler Toffoli, a proven finisher whom the Sharks have put next to the 18-year-old. Add in how he simply has the “look” of an NHL center after dominating college hockey in his only season. His determined skating, anticipation and vision are instantly noticeable. It’s preseason, of course, and he’ll have his tough nights. But the conditions are ripe for Celebrini to make an immediate impact and sustain that as a leading Calder Trophy candidate. — Eric Stephens
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Shane Wright, C: It’s Wright’s time. It has to be for a Kraken team that needs blue-chip contributors. The 20-year-old center had a solid draft plus-two campaign in the American League last season, capping it off with a successful eight-game NHL cameo (in which he scored four goals) and a stellar point-per-game showing in the Calder Cup playoffs. Entering this season, Wright has an inside track on a full-time role in the NHL. And the Kraken have the collection of skilled, defensively reliable wingers to complement and insulate him as he gets his feet wet early in the year. There are different types of breakouts and Wright probably doesn’t explode as a 60-point center in his first NHL campaign. Something close to Sam Bennett’s first NHL season — 18 goals, and just shy of 40 points — would still represent significant progress for Wright, and would be an essential development for the Ron Francis-era Kraken. — Thomas Drance
Zack Bolduc, LW: Bolduc, 21, got Blues fans excited at the end of the 2023-24 season when he had three goals in the final five games. He got them more excited with his performance at the Tom Kurvers Prospect Showcase earlier this month. Now the question is: Will Bolduc continue to impress in 2024-25? He’ll have to make the roster first. There’s a lot of depth in camp, but Bolduc, a first-round draft pick in 2021, has the skill to play in the top six and appears ready to break out if afforded the opportunity. — Jeremy Rutherford
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J.J. Moser, D: Without much young up-and-coming talent, the Lightning only have so many options here. But there is an opportunity for one defenseman to emerge as top-pair caliber — or at least, top-pair capable. If Moser can raise his game while playing his off side, the right, maybe he is a candidate for a breakout year. He wouldn’t have to become the team’s true No. 2, Ryan McDonagh checks that box, he would just have to keep up and complement Victor Hedman to solidify that top pair. — Shayna Goldman
Matthew Knies, LW: Knies had a solid, if inconsistent, regular season as a rookie. Then came the playoffs and his game went to another level. Knies was among the Leafs’ more impactful players against Boston in the first round, drawing more and more minutes as the seven-game series rolled along. Knies feels like a sure bet to score at least 20 goals this season, especially if his power-play opportunity increases as it appears it will. He is the likeliest candidate to play first-line minutes on Auston Matthews’ left wing, meanwhile, and may play a more consistent role on the penalty kill too. The arrow is pointing firmly upward for the soon-to-be 22-year-old. — Jonas Siegel
Dylan Guenther, RW: Guenther might be the biggest no-brainer choice on this list. Sent to the AHL for the first half a year ago, Guenther very quickly adapted to the NHL pace upon a January recall, including finishing the season with an impressive 12 goals and 23 points over his final 23 games. His big shot and work ethic are going to mean he earns far more minutes this year as a 21-year-old, including on PP1. He’s already one of the most dynamic young players in the league but soon 35 goals isn’t going to be out of reach. — James Mirtle
Nils Höglander has a fair bit of room to carve out a bigger role and earn larger opportunities with the Canucks. (Chris Tanouye / Freestyle Photography / Getty Images)
Nils Höglander, LW: Höglander seems like an odd choice given that he had a breakout campaign as a goal scorer last season, scoring 24 goals with a surely unsustainable 20 percent shooting clip. Beneath the surface though, Höglander has a fair bit of room to carve out a bigger role and earn larger opportunities — enough to more than offset any shooting-percentage regression. Höglander, for example, was a healthy scratch for two games in the Stanley Cup playoffs despite last year’s goal haul. He logged just 12 minutes per night, regularly playing on the fourth line. He hasn’t scored a power-play goal since 2021-22. Now Vancouver enters the year with a ton of open slots in its top-six forward group. There’s a job available with J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser on the top line, and another available with Elias Pettersson and Jake DeBrusk on the second line. Vancouver brought in a ton of free-agent wingers who will be in the mix for these spots — Danton Heinen, Daniel Sprong, Kiefer Sherwood — and 2022 first-round pick Jonathan Lekkerimäki could factor in here too. In handicapping who could win one of those jobs and hit a new level of production with an increased opportunity, why not the 23-year-old winger who scored 20-plus last season and has produced at a 19 goals-per-82-games-played clip in over 200 NHL games across his age 20-23 campaigns? — Thomas Drance
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Pavel Dorofeyev, LW: Coming off his first full NHL season, Dorofeyev is slated to play on the Golden Knights’ second line with Mark Stone and William Karlsson. He should see a significant bump in ice time from the 13 minutes he averaged as a rookie and will serve as the net-front presence on the line. Dorofeyev has a strong shot and a knack for finding the puck in dangerous areas of the ice. Those strengths, combined with his opportunity to play with two highly-skilled, pass-first forwards, set him up to have a big 2024-25 season. — Jesse Granger
Aliaksei Protas, RW/C: Protas’ production didn’t exactly pop (six goals, 23 assists) and he was stuck playing largely third-line minutes, but he still managed to finish third on the Caps in five-on-five points with 28 while showing a nice combo of playmaking ability and defensive work. We’re also legally required to mention that he’s an enormous man, at 6-6 and 225 pounds. If his shooting improves — he’s an abysmal 5.7 percent in 169 career games — and he gets better minutes, a 15-goal season seems doable. — Sean Gentille
Cole Perfetti, LW/C: He’s healthy, he has a contract and most importantly, Perfetti has a head coach talking about him like he’s a top-six forward well worthy of power-play time. It’s normal for 22-year-old players to take big developmental leaps on their own. Perfetti has the opportunity to do that and to play close to an extra two minutes per game at five-on-five and will get an audition on Winnipeg’s top power-play unit. Honorable mentions would include Nikolaj Ehlers, who received the first look at that open power-play job, and Brad Lambert, who is in tough to make the team but has game-breaking potential, but Perfetti has the biggest growth potential among the three. — Murat Ates
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(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic. Photos: David Kirouac / Icon Sportswire; Bill Wippert, Christopher Mast / NHLI via Getty Images)
