We’re a month into the season, which seems like more than enough time to look back at the offseason and use the benefit of hindsight to completely shift our opinions of everything that happened.
You remember the offseason, right? The Predators were the big winners, the Jets were huge losers, the goalie carousel ended up with everyone in exactly the right spot and a few teams would pay the price after chickening out on making big trades. After watching each team play a dozen games or so, we now know that we were completely wrong. We’re so much smarter now.
Will we be completely wrong again, in slightly different ways, a few weeks from now? Almost definitely. But for now, let’s take a look back at the best and worst of what did (and didn’t) happen.
Bonus five: Way-too-early conclusions about the offseason
5. The Predators’ spending spree was a bust — We’ll start with the easy one. More on the Predators down below, but yeah, they may not want to hang that “Offseason Champions” banner quite yet. And Nashville ends up directly related to our next entry …
4. Being heartless can pay off — The Golden Knights let several key players walk. The Lightning saw the most popular player in franchise history leave with what sure looked like a footprint on his back. We all shook our heads and mumbled about how there’s just no loyalty these days, and how both teams would surely pay a price for losing their heart and souls. Then both teams shrugged and got off to great starts. The lesson: Loyalty is bad! Except when it isn’t, which leads to our next point.
3. Sometimes, not making the big trade is the right move — We went into the summer thinking several names on expiring contracts would have to be moved. Two of the biggest were Martin Nečas and Nikolaj Ehlers, but neither ended up being dealt. Carolina re-signed Nečas while Winnipeg still has to figure out the long-term plan for Ehlers, but for now, both teams are sitting near the top of the standings and have to feel like they made the right call. The jury’s still out on Mitch Marner and the core in Toronto, but you could make a case the status quo is working there, too.
2. Offer sheets aren’t the end of the world — Dylan Holloway has been fine and Philip Broberg was good before getting hurt. Far more importantly, the hockey gods have not seen fit to smite Doug Armstrong and the Blues, and the league has yet to rescind the franchise. And while the Oilers aren’t off to a great start, they were at least able to find the strength to keep playing, as opposed to insisting on rejoining the WHA. Maybe we could try a few of these next summer, too?
1. Goalies are just weird — If you have any ability at all to predict goaltending, please report to the nearest NHL front office to receive your blank check. So far, the biggest offseason goalie moves have yielded very mixed results. Jacob Markström has been fine, while Linus Ullmark has just been “good enough” and Darcy Kuemper has been OK, but none (so far) have transformed their franchise. Big extensions for Jeremy Swayman and Juuse Saros aren’t paying off early, although Jake Oettinger looks great. Meanwhile, the biggest offseason goalie story of the summer was Igor Shesterkin, and we never did get a resolution there.
So what have we learned? Nothing, really, because it’s the NHL. On to this week’s rankings …
Road to the Cup
The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
Anthony Stolarz has been single-handedly keeping the Maple Leafs in games lately. Literally, on Friday night.
5. Dallas Stars (8-5-0, +6 true goals differential*) — They got an early prove-it matchup with the Jets on Saturday, and all they proved was that Winnipeg is the division’s best team right now. In more encouraging news, they’ve apparently emerged as the clear Cup favorite among The Athletic’s hockey crew (or at least they were when voting took place earlier in the week).
4. New York Rangers (9-3-1, +19) — Kevin Weekes sure seemed to be hinting that a Shesterkin deal was close last week, but so far, nothing official. It’s possible they’re still nailing down the final details. It’s also possible “he gets shelled by the Sabres and then his backup gets a shutout” doesn’t feel like the right moment to announce a record-breaking contract. Either way, you’ll notice this is the first time this season the Rangers aren’t our top-ranked team in the Metro, so I’ll remind you that the difference between third and fourth on a list like this isn’t all that huge.
3. Carolina Hurricanes (10-3-0, +20) — They probably should have been in last week’s rankings. There isn’t much doubt about this week, even with the Avs snapping their eight-game win streak. The Hurricanes are in, the Golden Knights are out and those two teams happen to meet tonight in Vegas to figure it all out. And in case you’re wondering, the first Rangers/Hurricanes game of the season doesn’t arrive until the end of the month.
2. Winnipeg Jets (14-1-0, +36) — They now own the best start in NHL history through 15 games, which is kind of an arbitrary endpoint but still impressive. Far more importantly, the chant game is on point.
This is great.
— Jeff Marek (@JeffMarek) November 9, 2024
This week brings another chance to silence any doubters, with the Rangers and Lightning and then a Panthers back-to-back showdown on the slate.
1. Florida Panthers (11-3-1, +11) — They’ve won seven straight on two continents, and now get the Devils in a fun back-to-back. But the main event starts on the weekend with that pair against the Jets. By the way, would this be a good time to remind everyone that none of you believed in Sam Reinhart?
*Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.
Not ranked: Vancouver Canucks — What a weird season so far.
If you were the sort of person who never watched this team and was only vaguely aware of them based on occasional snippets you overheard — which is to say, an Eastern-based sportswriter, am I right Vancouver? — then you’d probably think they were a disaster.
Thatcher Demko is hurt and still hasn’t played. Elias Pettersson has struggled through the first month of a $93 million extension. Brock Boeser just got knocked out of the lineup by a cheap shot. They started 0-3, got steamrolled by the Devils on home ice a few weeks ago and got smoked by the Oilers over the weekend. What a mess!
Also, they’re 7-3-3 and comfortably holding down a playoff spot.
So sure, a weird year, and I’m not completely sure what to make of it. There’s certainly room for optimism, with Quinn Hughes picking up where he left off last year and Demko now practicing and seemingly on his way back. Even Pettersson has looked better lately, and scored a nice goal on Saturday.
The optimist’s view, if there is such a thing among Canucks fans, is that they’ve had plenty go wrong and their record is still pretty good. The pessimist might look a little closer and point out that their wins have mostly come against some very bad teams, including the Hawks, Flyers, Penguins, Ducks and Sharks. Then again, they also beat the Panthers, so who knows?
No really, who knows? For now, we’re talking about them in the top section, so that’s good. But I’m genuinely curious where Canucks fans are at right now. Please meet me in the comments and let me know how you feel about the first month. Is this a good team that survived some serious hurdles? A paper tiger that pads its win total against the league’s weaklings? Something in between? Help me out, Vancouver fans.
The bottom five
The five teams that are headed toward dead last and the best lottery odds for James Hagens, or maybe someone else.
Are you looking for a terrible play or a brilliant one? How about both …
(Please do not ask a Blues fan what the final score ended up being.)
5. Philadelphia Flyers (5-8-2, -16) — It took a whole month, but we finally got the Matvei Michkov benching drama we were all waiting for. Good old John Tortorella, blowing his stack over some minor mistake and fracturing the relationship with the franchise’s most important young player. Or maybe not, as Kevin explains, but never let reality get in the way of a good narrative.
4. Anaheim Ducks (5-7-2, -12) — John Gibson is back, starting last night’s win over Columbus and looking sharp. That could eventually lead to some version of a goaltending controversy given how good Lukáš Dostál has looked, but for now, it gives the Ducks a boost.
3. Chicago Blackhawks (6-9-1, -10) — Something I didn’t realize until I read Mark and Scott’s latest: Connor Bedard went into the weekend ranked second in the league in five-on-five scoring chances, trailing only Auston Matthews. My only reasonable conclusion from this number is that scoring chances do not help players score goals.
2. Montreal Canadiens (4-9-2, -22) — I thought any talk of even hovering around the playoff race was overly optimistic, but I’ll admit I didn’t see it getting “right there with the Sharks” bad. Arpon’s column will be a tough read for Habs fans, but it’s a clear-eyed take that’s worth your time.
1. San Jose Sharks (5-9-2, -18) — Mackenzie Blackwood revenge game! Every now and then, you’ll see a 1-0 game that’s more exciting than a high-scoring shootout. Last night was, uh, not that game. But if you’re the rebuilding Sharks, you’ll take a shutout win over a Cup contender any day. And as for Blackwood shutting out his former teammates with 44 saves in an upset nobody could have seen coming, well, see point No. 1 from this week’s Bonus Five.
Not ranked: Nashville Predators — We featured the Predators in this section a few weeks ago, when they shared the slot with the struggling Red Wings. Typically, I don’t like to bring teams back to the land of the “not ranked” — I’d prefer to use these spots to tour around the league and hit as many teams as possible. But I’m not sure I have a choice when it comes to the Predators, because what we assumed was a slow start is becoming something much more, and much worse.
So let’s just drop the question here: Is the season already lost in Nashville?
They’re sitting at just 5-9-1 after Saturday’s win over Utah, leaving them last in the Central. And while it’s hardly their biggest concern right now, a team that had thoughts of making a push for a division title is already 17 points back of top spot. In early November.
What’s gone wrong? A better question might be what hasn’t. Pretty much anything that would have generated preseason optimism has turned out to be a dud. Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault are both having slow starts after getting nearly $60 million as UFAs. Newly extended Juuse Saros hasn’t been the problem but also hasn’t looked like the Vezina candidate you’re hoping for when you commit $62 million and trade your blue-chip goalie of the future. Andrew Brunette doesn’t seem to have any answers. They’re 24th in goals scored and 29th in goals against, which adds up to a differential in Sharks/Habs territory.
It’s a disaster. Or is it?
It’s not all bad. Unlike a lot of struggling teams, the special teams have been fine. They’re reasonably healthy, which is better than the alternative even as it removes an excuse. The underlying numbers are OK, and if you remember your 2014 analytics arguments you know their 94.8 PDO means they’re better than you think. They looked good against Utah. And the schedule has been tough, serving up playoff contenders almost every night.
But the Predators are supposed to be playoff contenders, too, at the very least. They’re not close to that now, and as we all know, it gets late early in the NHL. So what does Barry Trotz do now? You don’t sign a bunch of 30-somethings to long-term contracts and trade away your best prospect because you’re willing to shrug off a lost season.
A coaching change feels like a panic move given Brunette is only in Year 2. But with a two-time Jack Adams winner in the front office ready to take over, even if only as a short-term fact-finding mission, it feels plausible. Maybe Trotz can find a significant trade, even as we’re told that’s impossible in today’s league. Maybe he really does try to scrap the whole thing and rebuild, which is the path he suggested in a controversial radio spot this week (although Elliotte Friedman makes a good case that that’s not really an option).
Or maybe you just wait and hope. With Colorado and Edmonton up next to kick off a five-game road trip, things could get even further out of hand quickly in Nashville. If things don’t turn around quickly, the next time we talk about them in the Bottom Five section, it won’t be as a “not ranked” team.
Finally, let’s end this week’s column with a shoutout to a pair of sportswriting legends: Scott Burnside, honored by the Hockey Hall of Fame with the Elmer Ferguson Memorial Award, and Eric Duhatschek, who announced his retirement in a farewell column. Two great writers, and two great guys, especially when it came to helping out younger writers. Thanks for everything, gentlemen, and enjoy those well-earned accolades.
(Photo of Steven Stamkos: Mike Carlson / Getty Images)
